So it's not that bad? Or is it?

In many facets of life, there's always an "I told you so" crowd.  They love to predict the future--especially if it's negative.  We've heard these voices within our hobby for quite some time.

I'll add to the article's Radio Shack/electronics analogy:  There are hardly any travel agencies in my area any more.  But from 1990-2010, airline travel has grown by about 61%.  Tickets, hotels and car rentals are all handled digitally. Almost any good or service can be purchased (or otherwise acquired) in a manner that didn't exist just a few years ago. But, will that reality sway those who are certain the hobby's death is moments away? Probably not.

100% of my hobby budget goes

100% of my hobby budget goes online. There is a hobby shop 20 minutes away from my house but what they have to offer is so poor a selection of products that I gave up going there a long time ago. I personally believe that the hobby has never before had such a good selection of models and modeling materials as today, it's just all online... So no, I don't believe the hobby is going away, not at all!

Agree with Bill.

The old way is in the past.  I liked Radio Shack.  Taxes are up on all levels of government.  My discretionary dollar is getting smaller.  I can wait a month if I figure ahead even slightly and can wait if I err.  Why should I pay $29.95 for something at a specialty shop if I can be a little patient and get 5 for $1.38 and free shipping to the door and not spend money on gas.  The local hobby shop was a great place a couple of years ago but it closed.  I supported it.  The nearest decent hobby shop is 210 miles away now.  They have a limited inventory.

To get back on track, the lone or semi lone wolves must be buying model railroad stuff because the big guys like Athearn, Atlas and Accurail (and that's only the As) are still marketing cars and locos and decoders and control systems and scenery and and and...

Seems to me like the time to worry will be when these guys stop putting out new stuff and start cutting back on the current stuff.  Enjoy it for the time being.  It's not very bad.....

Nick

When I go to the local hobby

When I go to the local hobby shop, mine is 120 miles away and there are at least 4 worth visiting if they have something I am in the market for I buy it. I typically spend more at train shows or on the web because the items I am interested in can be purchased there. Most rolling stock is ready to disassemble and I have sworn off buying so called ready to run. I can still find unbuilt kits and will buy them instead via the used market. I will build them to my standards and be happy. The resin guys still make nice kits too and I will buy there items as well.

My favorite section is the consignment area where used or second hand unbuilt stuff is located. That is the first place I go when in the store.

When looking at the figures Joe collected for the hobby involvement it does not seem to me to be on a downward trend. There maybe a small percentage under a certain age group in the hobby but that continues to be there. It is also a hobby that seems to have guys stay in it for decades. In looking at the numbers each group seems to be bigger than the last because as the guys age they stay in the hobby. With the continuing increase in life expectancy a hobby made up of old guys has a good chance of being around for a long time.

I am of the firm belief that

I am of the firm belief that the hobby is not dying. But instead, is expanding to encapsulate other niches. 

Static Modeling, War Gaming, etc is huge these days. And the crowd they capture is youthful and does not have the money trains and electronics bring to your hobby. 

It is a false hope to think nothing is wrong, though. I am of the opinion we believe what we want to believe.

I recognize one of the biggest issues with the hobby and refuse to talk about it anymore. I'd rather watch them fall a long slow death.

They did nothing to support the hobby shop. MRH has a list of hobby shops.

They did nothing to support the youth. Look at their leader.

They look at you like a fool when you tell any one of them that they need to recruit youth into the leadership.

Hobbies aren't being attacked. They are as stable and growing as they ever were.

It is just the model train that is.

Yes, and No ...

Yes, the model train industry is changing; no, it isn't the end ... yet.

The Travel Agency analogy Bill Michaels used in the first post is a good one.  The travel industry is doing great, however, the niche that was the travel agency has become obsolete as all of this can be done more easily on-line.  You also see it with bookstores, electronics parts, shoes, clothing, and the list keeps growing.  So judging the health of the hobby by only looking at retail hobby shops, is not capturing the true status.

eBay

hmmm ... I'd like to see some hard analysis of this statement.  I just did a quick look at the first page of "ending soonest" and let the auctions finish.  The average listing was pretty close to Joe's stated $50; however, of the 50 items on the first page, 3 of them actually sold (assuming the high bidder finalized the transaction).  This is pretty much been my experience with eBay ... the same stuff, just gets listed over and over again, but MOST of it does not sell on a given iteration or cycle.  Granted, just grabbing a snapshot of the next 50 items to end is probably too small a sample ... it would be interesting to collect real data on this though.

Now then, Joe as barely scratched the surface of this monster.  Some interesting numbers, if one could get them would be:

1. Who is listing these items?  Are they merchants expanding their exposure to increase sales (I know many of them are, as they have eBay stores).  But a significant portion seem to be non-hobbyist who are merely trying to sell unwanted items ... perhaps acquired from the estate of a (former) hobbyist.
2. Who is buying these items?  Are they hobbyists who are looking for specific items and eBay certainly has the greatest selection available.  Or are they collectors who simply want to own these items to complete a collection.  Or, perhaps they are other dealers, using their knowledge and experience to cherry pick the best items, knowing that they can quickly turn it around with a profit?

Depending on how the numbers sort themselves out, would provide a better metric for eBay sales as it relates to the health of the hobby.

Another interesting way to assess the "health" of the hobby would be to look at attendance to model railroad shows/events.  This could be a good indicator of how "popular" the hobby is ... what are the numbers telling us over the years?  Are more or fewer people attending?  Are there more or fewer shows to attend?  I expect the numbers may be going down*, as the cost to put on a show seems to be sky rocketing, so there are fewer shows available for the public to visit ... but how are the numbers for the shows that do get scheduled?

I think the "bad news" from this is that with hobby shops closing and (possibly) public shows on the decline*, model railroading is not getting the public exposure that it once had (although perhaps YouTube videos are filling this niche?)

* Seems to be the trend in the USA ... but I think in Europe and Ociana, the opposite may be happening as model railroad shows seem to be quite popular in those regions.

Well, at the convention this

Well, at the convention this weekend me and a 12 year old boy were in charge of cutting the cake and then passing it off to charlie getz and there were some 20 something here to. I would definitely not say the hobby itself is dying just some things are going away.

Reality

Its a hard thing to figure in any hobby. Things have changed in Model Railroading as has the rest of the world. The NMRA is not a solution to growing this hobby, you and I are. We have more products, better detailed and variety then we have ever had before. There are so many facets to a hobby. Enjoy what you have now as it will change tomorrow.

Great column Joe!

TomO

Time to liven up the old forum?

Things getting a little boring Joe?  Time for another "The Hobby is Dying Thread".

And oh for good measure some one threw in the NMRA.

As we pool our anecdotal evidence, I'll throw in mine.

1.  There are fewer hobby shops this year than last.

2.  Attendance and dealers are down at train shows.

3.  As shown in the MRH survey, the hobby continues to age out.  With 71% over 50 (40% over 60).  (I'm assuming a ten year old start which may be a little low)

4.  NMRA membership continues to decline.  (There's that NMRA thing again)

5.  Paid magazine subscriptions continue to decline - the new model is you have to give it away to get readers.

6.  Video games are booming so the young folks aren't interested in boring old trains.

I'm sure there's more.

But for me the good news is, I have tons of stuff, way more than I could ever use.  So I'm set.

Paul

ps it was RTR that killed the hobby.

The decline of the hobby...

Hello Joe...

I live in Canada and model the Canada Southern in southern Ontario, in HO scale, in 1953.

I am one of those "harbingers of doom" when it comes to the future of our hobby, and that is a tough admission coming from an optimist, "class half full", as opposed to a "class half empty" kind of approach.

All of the things to which you refer are true...however...
​Contemporary life is changing, it seems, so rapidly one can hardly keep up...and everyone has to have the latest gadget...i.e. cell phone/iPad/ or what have you, and this is from a 67 year old dinosaur that does NOT own a cell phone...

As far as the hobby is concerned, I, like most modeler's, IMHO, model what they experienced as a child of, say 5 to 12/15 years old...and again, IMHO, the golden age of real railroading was well on the decline by 1960 at the latest. That date can be argued, to be sure...but if you compare railroading of today with the railroading of the first half of the 20th century...there is really no comparison as far as the true "mechanics" of the industry.

​Of course, I can not say for certain, but if I was a child of today, modern railroading would bore the hell out of me...but that opinion is shaky, because I am basing it upon my personal MEMORIES, which do indeed have an influence and set a bias, no matter how objective I try to be, those experiences slant the way I view modern railroading. To me, there is no excitement in modern railroading.

If I was a child of today, my experience would not include:
​trains with a caboose, coaling towers, ash pits, water towers and the paraphernalia that accompany those contraptions.
mixed trains daily, and funky little way freights that did rural switching in pastoral towns and villages along the line.
​ABS along most of the rights of way..you could sit in a depot parking lot and watch the signals in either direction and as they changed colour, you could tell when a train was approaching...and getting "19" orders on the fly...before the string on the wye...when they had to throw the hoop back to the operator...
depots with agents and telegraph operators
​a maze of industrial switching areas in large congregated factory infested areas, with real "cool" industrial architecture...now granted, that is an acquired taste.
​railroads that had locomotive designs that were unique to their specific needs...you could tell a CPR loco from a CNR one instantly.
​even as late as the early 1970s you could find lash ups of 1'st generation diesels that were dazzling in their variety...RS-3, FA2, F7A an RS-10 and maybe an F7-B or FA-2-B all tied together...
Railroads with many corporate identities...and the paint schemes to display that individuality...

​And in my day, a buddy and me could pack a bag lunch, get on our "2 wheelers"...{bicycles}, and head out on a Saturday morning in Windsor, Ontario, Canada and put in a full day of rail fanning all over the city, and yes..I guess we would be trespassing as we toured old abandoned factories, such as Truscon Steel, and traipsed around the Essex Terminal engine house while the day foreman would let us sit in the cab of ETR 0-6-0, #9, Montreal 1923...and eat our lunch...then off to the C&O...then to the CNR along the Detroit river to check out the round house/turntable area...then over to the Canadian Pacific to watch them switch the CP lead and the PM lead...get a drink of water at the old water stand where the stock pens used to be...and meander through the roundhouse, without anyone saying a thing to us...because they knew we were kids interested in the unique wonder that was/is railroading...maybe, on occasion, get a ride in a cab...then off to the old New York Central hump yard and snoop around the old abandoned crew quarters, up to the old concrete coaling tower near the old round house...checking out anything and everything that had any connection to the steam engine...and all the way out to Ojibway park to see old archbar trucked ETR gondola cars abandoned on some old weed infested spur and then going in to Meretsky's scarp yard to find a pile of old rusted straight 8 engine blocks probably from old Buicks...then peddle our butts home after a day of real adventure, 1963 style.
​If you tried that today...first of all, there's nothing much to see...and you'd get apprehended by the railroad gendarmes, and given the bums rush with a trespassing ticket in the amount of $125.00...{personal experience, folks...LOL}

​I could rattle on for page after page...but you get my point.
But these things to which I refer, reflect MY personal point of view as to what real railroading was about in MY youth. And even back then, in 1963, I tearned for a time machine to take me back even farther...say about 1935.

Kids today can never have that experience, and IMHO, they are the worse for it.
 

​In summing up...there really is no comparison to the railroading of today to that of the golden past.

​One more quick $0.02 worth...as far as the hobby itself...the model railroad hobby...the quality of the equipment is truly awesome compared to the offerings of the past...EVERYTHING has improved so very much compared to the days of John Allen, Bill McClanahan, Frank Ellison, and the rest of the patron saints of this hobbies pioneer days...the running quality, especially of the steam engines, the electronics such as DCC...remember "ASTRAC"?...the RTR rolling stock, although expensive, is immaculate, and the scenery materials available...structure kits, dazzling.

​The demise of the "brick and mortar" hobby shop is another great loss...how often did you spend a Friday night, till 9:00, or a Saturday hanging around the local shop and shooting the breeze with fellow hobbyists, and just lusting after those PFM, United, Akane, LMB brass steam engines in the display cases...my first brass was an Akane USRA 0-8-0, still have it...a Christmas gift from my dad, 1963...wouldn't take a million dollars for it...first brass I ever painted, and weathered, and I but it back together with the driving wheels insulated on the wrong side...live and learn...but the thing still looks good today.

​I hope I am wrong, but I think long term, model railroading his heading down a dark road kicking a can...

​Hope you enjoyed my little anecdote, and thanks for reading.


 

Define "modern"

Yes and no. First you need to define "modern". After 1960? After 1980? After 2000? What? If by modern you mean "after my younger years" then that's cheating. For many people, their fondest memories of trains are from their younger years. It's no different with today's younger modelers.

First, I'm modeling 1980 - 1989 as a rolling decade on my layout. It has no roofwalks on the cars but it does have cabooses. I'm having a blast and the ops is totally engaging. Is that "modern"? If so, it's extremely captivating and fun.

Second, what about totally modern? As in 2017? MRH and TrainMasters TV are doing a totally modern rendition of today's Vermont Railway as a home layout project series. I've been helping on the project, first with the design, and second with modeling some rolling stock. I've been having a blast modeling completely contemporary, and I've operated on the finished layout. It's every bit as fun as my own layout and it's opened my own eyes to how fun TOTALLY CURRENT DAY railroading can be.

Finally, just because a modern young guy becomes interested in the hobby, there's nothing to stop them from modeling historical. One of the MRH staff belongs to a southern California club that has a good number of members who are under 40. What's the most common era these youngsters want to model? Steam to diesel transition! Why? Because they're fascinated by steam.

This last point is a big one. Just because they never saw the steam-to-diesel transition era in revenue service themselves does not stop these young guys from wanting to model it. A case in point is the popular WWII military modeling hobby - it's going strong even though almost everyone who models it now never saw this equipment is operation.

Yes, the dynamics of modeling trains is changing, but you can't use your own interests as an older modeler to judge what modern-day hobbyists will find interesting. The modern day railroading is boring complaint is common, but it's a broad-brush over-generalization.

There's lots of modern-day railroading examples that are every bit as fascinating to model as historical examples. In my own case, modeling the modern day Vermont Railway on the TMTV project railroad has opened my eyes to how fun modeling modern day can be.

P.S. I was born in the fifties and my first memories of trains come mainly from the 1960s. Yet I model the 1980s, which is the era when my son and I railfanned together and it's also a time when my dad was still alive. I took the most photos of prototype railroading from the 1980s SP Siskiyou Line, and that's what I ended up modeling. My earliest memories of trains got me into the hobby, but for other reasons I ended up picking a more modern era and am loving it.

A few more thoughts...at large.

Hello Paul...

I am a Canadian and live in the boondocks north of Toronto...130 miles.

Hobby shops;
We had a great little hobby shop in Bracebridge that closed, not due to a declining clientele, but the fellow who owned it wanted to retire and enjoy the fruits of his labour...it was for sale, and there were several serious buyers, but the good old banks had to have all angles covered, including some that haven't been discovered yet... or they wouldn't lend the $$$...{that is a story for another time}, but because oif that, the shop went ouit of business, and it is missed. It had a good basic inventory, model railroading was it's priority, but it had other hobby products as well...and the owner would order you anything and deliver/get it, for the most part.
​I supported this shop religiously...his prices were also very reasonable.

I use Ebay, but ONLY for things I wanted that the hobby shop could not supply...Ambroid kits, old Revell buildings, any out of production stuff...

Train Shows;
​Attendance is declining, vendor's are retiring or not showing up due to lack of consumer support.
​I am a member of a loose knit bunch of model rails who have a modular layout called the Union Railroad Group that we bring to shows on occasion and set it up to demonstrate how railroading impacted communities in the mid 1950s...we have an operating session with switch lists and it is a point to point operation and we run it proto typically. It is basically a switching layout.
​At times, we will have 20 or more people watching what we do, and when they are watching me, I have the "gift of gab" and am not shy to talk to anyone, so I give them a running commentary on what we are doing. Once I interact with them, their interest seems to increase.
​I am an operation oriented modeler...running a train in circles puts me to sleep...I like to operate prototypically and like to display that part of the hobby whenever possible. I find that operation draws peoples' interest and maybe that aspect will garner a long term interest in the hobby...and as experienced as I am, on occasion, someone in our viewing audience has challenged me on the number of moves to make a move, and they have been correct...which was a bit embarrassing, but it was fun and rewarding to know that they were paying attention.
​I like to think, in a small way, the layout does spread interest in model railroading...and that can't be a bad thing.

Video Games;
​These things are a wicked opponent to model building on all levels...they are fun, but how to combat their impact is a hard call...parents are the best ally against their influence...but hmmmmmmmm...{?}

The NMRA;
The hobby has to have new interested members, or there will be no one to support the NMRA.
Sort of a "catch 22".
​I was a late joiner to the NMRA...sadly. But the hobby would be nowhere without them...we as hobbyists take them for granted, methinks.
​They set the standards from which we all benefit, they issue warrants, and help immensely in keeping the quality of products up to snuff.
​That alone is reason enough to support them.

I, like Paul, have way more stuff in my stash than I'll probably ever use...so when I attend shows or go to the hobby shop, I don't need a single thing...but I always try and spend a bit of $$ in support.
​I have a big problem spending $45.00 on a ready to run freight car, although they are very well done, I would much rather build an old Ambroid kit, or a Marker Lamp models or one of the old wooden kits...but the new breed don't seem to want to spend the time to do that.

Time will tell...

Can't argue with you Joe, as

Can't argue with you Joe, as the hobby seems to offer "all things to all people". Modern, to me, as far as MODELING IS CONCERNED, is any thing after chopped nose diesels...but that is totally subjective, and as much as I stubbornly resist that definition of the "modern era"  in modeling, I have operated on some layouts that portray that period of modern era and yes, they are fun...and I guess when it comes down to the nuts and bolts aspect of the hobby, the basics stay the same...although with modern stuff, IMHO, it limits you as far as the use of obsolete equipment and operating styles that are available to the "period" modeler.
​But what I am referring to as the modern era as far as my interest in prototype railroading is concerned is the current stuff I see out my car window today.
​Compared to todays, 2017 class 1 railroads, I would go back to 1966 or 1970 in a flash.

But again, it is all a matter of taste and opinion...which adds to the greatness of this hobby.

I am a North American modeler, but if I lived forever, I could dive right into British railway modeling, with those "ugly", to me, little 0-4-2s and 0-6-0 steam engines from the early 20th century and the grimy little goods wagons and the soot covered industrial areas of 1930s Britain. 

We will need organizations even more ...

The changes in hobby retailing recounted in the preceding posts can only increase the need and justification for social groups in model railroading, whether through NMRA, your local club layout, round-robin operating work groups, or others.

A key benefit of the local hobby shop, in the golden age, was the efficient acquisition of information about locating, installing and using hobby products. That's what a lot of those hobby shop BS sessions, noted above, were about and it also occurred through social organizations. The same information, and vast amounts of new information, now is available in MRH forums and elsewhere online, but acquiring it is not efficient. Posts are long-winded, explore tangents, and use inconsistent terminology. Post titles are non-descriptive. When posts run to dozens of pages, reading and filtering them takes a long time. Ultimately you can find the information you want, but it takes a long time and it's not the same as having a trusted modeler make a recommendation. Now, the day will come when I can ask Alexa, "What's the correct coupler to use on the Walthers 53' mill gondola?" and she will give the one and only correct answer after consulting a vast online data warehouse of articles, reviews and posts, but that day is at least several years off and will require non-trivial content agreements and API sharing by MRH or others. Until then, NMRA division meets, regional conventions, local club operating and round-robin groups with in-person communication still represent a key efficient way to obtain, filter, digest and respond to model railroading information.

Hobby retailing is likely to continue to decline in traditional formats unless a physical store and its employees can offer the kind of value described above and modelers believe that such value justifies the higher retail prices that surviving shops will have to charge in comparison with lower-overhead online retailers. The reason hobby shops are closing is that modelers do not perceive them to add value, either in knowledge or saved time, to most transactions. The long-term future probably lies in 95% online retailing coupled with AI-assisted knowledge bases, 5% retailing via periodic shows and conventions, and ever smaller social modeling organizations as the power of AI increases - although only time will tell if the expansion of AI systems leads to social backlash and rejection.

Modern stuff

     The problem with modern stuff is there's just not enough of it in places where people in general and kids specifically can interact with it so it's hard for large numbers of the population to get emotionally connected to railroading and want to model it. Any new crop of modelers will not be as "organic" as the kids who grew up with real trains running thru their neighborhoods and their dreams, so while the hobby should survive in some form it won't be the same. People still ride and shoe horses but our lives are not connected to them in the same way they were in 1860. Modern railroading is different but still exciting and interesting and a kid growing up today at Tehachapi or Cajon still could become a modeler but the trains don't run here any more......DaveB

Gotta see the real thing?

If that were true, then why is WWII military modeling so popular, or why are fantasy space models so popular? They are not visible in the real world.

People don't need to see the "real thing" to become enamored - in today's world, they just need to see it on popular media to become enamored with it. For WWII military modeling, it's the History Channel, for fantasy space models (Star Trek, Star Wars) again, it's seeing movies and TV shows with those objects.

In short, the modern generation spends as much time viewing media as viewing anything else, so if there's fun train stuff on popular media sources (like YouTube or in movies like Polar Express or the recent Lone Ranger flick), then they'll also become interested that way.

You just need to update your viewpoint for 21st Century millennials and beyond. If it's on popular media, that can generate interest as well for the younger generations. Having to see it in person to become interested is more of a last century viewpoint.

Anecdata and parallel universes

I never had the experience of hangin' around the hobby shop until 9 PM on Friday. I never joined the Masons or  the NMRA or went bowling with my buddies, either.  I just worked 60-70 hours a week, did stuff with my wife and kids, listened to the opera on Saturday and went to church and watched the Patriots on Sunday.  

i did/do most of my model railroading alone between 5 AM and 7 AM, don't operate with anybody else.  My nearest hobby shop -- a good one -- is 2h and 15m away.  I order about $40 a month online and drop a similar amount at brick and mortar stores when I travel.  I went to the Amherst Show, spent money and was astonished by how many families and women were there compared to what I read online.  Same thing at the few shows I have been to in Richmond, VA, where I spend the winter.  Sure, the "box shifter" vendors, as the British call them, may be dropping out, but I always find things to buy, (though Jordan vehicles immediately disappeared after their manufacturer died.  Got any you want to sell?) 

My point:  all these discussions of "whither the hobby" are anecdata from people who live in parallel universes.  I bet very few of you can identify with the way I practice my hobby and live my life, yet we make categorical statements based on our own lives.  I like real data, of the kind that Joe tries to provide, to test my impressions of the world formed by what is really very tiny exposure to it.  

All I can say is that when I go to a show, I try to take someone new to the hobby with me.  It's what I can do to help them while helping model railroading as a pastime.

"Having to see it in person

    I think it's more a human trait. We are more likely to respond to something we are exposed to in person. We in the USA could all be playing rugby  but we are more likely to be playing baseball, basketball, or American football. So using the same theory maybe one quarter as many kids will become lifelong model railroaders compared to the kids in say the 1950 when trains were a much bigger part of society's experience. There's a big difference between a hobby being extinct and not being as widely practiced as it once was. People still ride horses but no one would say the horse based transportation system is a strong as it once was.......DaveB  

Walthers Catalog example...

Joe, Athearn is not a good example. Athearn is not in the Walthers catalog for good reason, Horizon Hobby does not want you to purchase Athearn products from Walthers, they want you to purchase Athearn products from Horizon Hobbies. What I'd really like to know, why can online hobby retailers sale hobby products at prices below those of hobby shops? Yes there is overhead in running a hobby shop, but there is also some overhead in running an online business? Why is it, I can purchase a product cheaper through the MB Klein's website, than if I purchased that product in their brick and mortar shop? I'd also like to know why, online retailers cannot post the actual price of Kato products? Why do I have to move that product into the shopping cart before I see the discounted price? How much control does the manufactures have over the people selling their products? Is this some of the reasons brick and mortar hobby shops are closing? The internet is changing the way we purchase our hobby products, a little word of warning, don't be surprised when online shops start charging sales tax for your state. The States have got to make up for lost revenue from all of the brick and mortar stores that are closing, not just the hobby shops, Sears, JC Penney, Macy's', etc. 

Food for thought   

It's already happening ...

It's already happening. From a Google search on "State sales tax when buying online" ...

Our ecommerce website host, Weebly, charges the sales tax for the MRH Store and remits it to the appropriate state, taking us neatly out of the loop. We never see the sales tax and we don't have to deal with it. 

So it's already happening, and we won't be surprised to see every state that levies sales tax to eventually join this list. The best ecommerce hosting sites will handle each states' sales tax for us website owners and that way we don't need to bother with it.

California

In California, since 2012, all online merchants with affiliated locations within California have been required to collect CA sales tax from consumer buyers and remit it to the state. The main example is Amazon. This narrow compromise was the only way Democrats could get an online tax law passed; there had to be some "nexus" of the retailer to CA residents.

However, all purchases made by any CA resident from an out of state seller and delivered to that resident in CA are subject to CA use tax (which has the same rates as sales tax).  Use tax is a tax that applies to goods brought into the state from outside, for use in the state.  As a practical matter the Franchise Tax Board's ability to detect these transactions and demand payment of use tax is limited, but it is effective in some situations. The FTB recently significantly increased enforcement efforts and has started to send demand letters to CA residents who buy higher-value goods overseas and have them shipped home through a licensed customs broker. They do this by requiring customs brokers in CA to report transaction details electronically to FTB. Once they detect a transaction that came in from overseas through customs and that will yield $100 or more in CA use tax, they contact the buyer and demand the tax.

So, planning to buy a few thousand in brass from an eBay seller in Canada, or a higher-end Marklin set from a German seller on Amazon? If that seller prepares US customs entry paperwork and ships to you through a CA customs broker, be prepared to get a CA tax bill in a few months.

Don't ask me how I know.

Low-value transactions appear to be safe - for now.

Regarding the local hobby shop vs online............

...............buying, I admit most, but not all things are obtained on line.  Here's why.  My local hobby shop, a Train only shop stocking HO and N (I'm in O scale 2 rail) has huge selection of piano wire, tubing and square brass stock, paint, stripwood in bass and balsa and every shape and size made of plastic structural material and sheets.  For some reason I need to see it and feel it to gauge it's size and what I will use it for.  With paint I am usually buying it for the color, not for a specific RR's color.  I just find it easier to do "eyes on"....

I usually drop about 75-100 bucks "stocking up" on material when I do go.

Peter

Have to disagree with "Amboyduke"

I belong to a number of FaceBook Groups involved with model railroading, some are more "serious" than others.  One of the very popular groups "HO Scale Model Railroading" has over 17,000 members.  There is a very wide range of how these members practice the hobby.  One of the enjoyable things to see is the number of young persons that get such a charge of setting up an oval of track and video their running of trains in this manner.  They are having fun!  I suppose the "real" hobbyists don't think much of this, but they are just starting out.  Many will putz around like this until life's circumstances afford the time, space, funds,etc and then they  will grow their enjoyment into a "pike."  

No, I guess there isn't the hobby store to hang around anymore, but there are a lot of folks "hanging around"  the on-line forums and groups, getting info, kibitzing, asking and answering questions, learning, seeing other's work, and showing off your own.

I don't see it going down that "dark road."

Hobby shops have for decades

Hobby shops have for decades been little more the "Catalog stores" like Sears used to do in small towns.  They had a few of the most common items on hand and everything else was ordered from a catalog.  If you wanted a specific engine or other model odds are you needed to order it.  Today it is easy to do without getting a hobby shop involved.  This is simpler, can be done from home, and is usually cheaper to do for yourself,  so it is perfectly understandable that hobby shops are going the way of the old catalog stores.

Same holds true with train shows.  It used to be if you wanted something out of production (say a bass engine) you went to a train show.  My big local show used to have three huge brass sellers and a bunch of little ones,  all are gone from the show now.  

The other huge issue is the shrinking middle class and the loss of disposable income,  For the last 3 or 4 decades the US workforce and middle class have been shrinking.  The wages have been decreasing or not keeping up with inflation, and involuntary expenses such as gas, vehicles, utilities and taxes have been increasing causing a huge drop in disposable income.  This I think has led to the lower income members of the hobby decreasing in number.  Leaving the higher income members of the hobby as the more dominant numbers.  Thus the hobby sells more ready to run the shake the box kits.  As the better off have money but not much time.  This is a catch 22 as the increase in rtr raises the cost of the hobby thus the lower income members decline even more.  Add in that most who where badly effected by the mess 8 or 9 years ago are still effected by it to one degree or another and it just increased the speed of the decline in lower income members of the hobby.

As for hobby shops closing vs being sold.  It is simply that all that inventory makes it to expensive to buy.  If the hobby shop payed  its founder a reasonable income it now needs to do that to its new owner and st the same time pay off the loan to the bank to buy it.  Most small businesses don't make enough to pay the new owner and still pay the old owner (or bank) off.  Thus the inventory gets sold.  The business is worth more piecemeal then as a business.  This is why rich folks buy a business and sell it off one piece at a time (Remember Pretty Woman?)

-Doug M