I Believe the Hobby is actually Growing

I travel or have traveled through 11 east coast states in search of supplies for my HOn3 RR and talking to many owners of hobby shops and seeing the numbers of customers in the stores they all say that Model Railroading supplies is flying off the shelves. "N" scale has grown at least 20% in most stores. Sn3 and On3 is being requested at a such a high rate that cars and engines are being ordered like they haven't seen before. From 1995 to 2005 HOn3 seemed to drop in sales and supplies just set on the shelves. Now in the past 4 years there has been close to a 100% rise in requests for HO and HOn3 products and with the number of Manufacturers making On3 & HOn3 Engines and rolling stock they have not been unable to keep up with the demands. Hand laid Track is on the rise to the point that from March through the first part of June ready cut ties were back ordered for all scales and every bag that came into stores were all pre-sold and never had a chance to be hung on the racks. Joe from what I've seen and been told by Hobby shop owners (on the East coast) in all the Model Railroad Hobby shops I've been in all seem to be on the rise. The biggest things for the past year has been Glues scenery materials paints and general support items. From what I see it seems that you started MRH at exactly the best time possible. In my opinion I see MRH growing as well as The hobby for at least the next 10 years. Like you stated Joe The internet is the best thing that has come along to help Model railroading and bring model Railroaders together into one large group to pass information amongst each other like no Railroad magazine has ever been able to do. I figure that MRH is exactly what the Model Railroaders of the world need right now and for Me I say Thanks Joe for the Great Magazine and helping bring us all together.

Dan

July Editorial

Joe, I'm afraid that your latest editorial contains a significant number of factual errors, weighing heavily on the conclusions to be drawn from them.

Your comments regarding generation Y potentially having a dramatic impact on the hobby's future is purely speculation on your part since there is absolutely nothing in evidence to indicate that generation Y has any  interest in model trains at all. The dramatic peak in the interest for model railroading during the 1990's is directly linked to individuals who played with Lionel, Flyer and Marx trains as kids in the 40's, 50's and early 60's returning to the hobby as middle-aged and senior adults. No similar link or association with model trains can be shown for generation Y, no matter what their relative numbers.

Addressing the magazines, only RMC's readership peaked in the 1980's, not MR. MR's readership continued to grow dramatically until 1994, after which it began a long decline. Between the two major magazines, the loss of readership to date amounts to 100,000 copies a month. This is far in excess of the combined readership of the now defunct second tier magazines and the surviving ones, of which only Classic Toy Trains, not a truly scale model magazine anyway, has any really significant following. This places any conclusions drawn from this area as being highly questionable.

In regard to the Internet's contribution to the demise of the magazines, that remains very much a matter of personal opinion. A large percentage of older hobbyists do not participate in any on-line forums or other interactive facets of the Internet and these folks still pretty much make up the bulk of active hobbyists.

I would also point out that material put up on the Internet is not normally peer reviewed and thus no degree of accuracy of facts can be assumed. Magazine articles go through a series of reviews, evaluations and fact checking before publication. Just the opposite is true of the Internet. For every knowledgable individual, like yourself (and by association, MRH), providing good solid info/advice on-line, there are likely to be dozens that post what amounts to little more than baseless personal opinion as to how to approach various aspects of the hobby. I'm afraid that I've seen more questionable, or just plain inaccurate advice offered than good, solid info. Put plainly, the value of what you get off the Internet will often be worth exactly what you paid for it.

Concerning the overall question addressed by the last two editorials as to whether the hobby is growing, or shrinking, I can only say that I have not found anyone in any position of authority in the past half dozen years that can point to a single verifiable fact  that indicates hobby growth, or even stability. The inference from secondary sources, I'm afraid, all point in the opposite direction. 

NYW&B      

Still a growing hobby

This topic is a current thread on the Railroad-Line forum and based on that I would say that print magazines are still a primary resource for many modelers.   Out of 3 pages of responses, I was the only one who had dropped all print subscriptions, and only because of costs.   To many modelers, print magazines are favored because of their portability and ease of use ( pick up or drop anytime).   I believe print magazines will survive for the near future but eventually will sucumb to the wealth of resources on the internet at substantially reduced costs.

As for the hobby, I see a daily growth on the forum from users all over the world.   Members as young as 14 to seniors over 80.   One of the factors in this was Bachmann's introduction of the On30 line.   This is the fastest growing segment and has thousands of followers worldwide and I believe will push the hobby to new highs.

Dave Mason

Publisher editorial

 You said in your column that MR's circulation peaked in the 1980s. MR reached its height with the 1993 circulation figures-224 thousand plus. Declined ever since. I've kept a chart over the years of what magazine circulation was.

Frank P.

editorial

Hi

Sort of agree with you. I have never bought a magazine( although some old ones from the 90s were given to me). Judging from various forums (eg the gauge) there seems to be a healthy community out there. Most of my purchases are on ebay (and in New Zealand trademe), and purchases seldom go throught without some intense bidding. This online magazine is wonderful, (as I still will not spend money on magazines when track and other things are still needed) and I will be spreading the word!

Thank you

Mario Barbafiera

Thinking positive is key, new initiatives make the difference

I live in Europe and also here there is signals abound indicating declines in interest of hobbyists and several model producing companies and distributors/hobbyshops in heavy waters as a result. I am myself a re-entering hobbyist at somewhat middle age I guess it's called, but with more enthousiasm than ever before. I have collected a huge amount of printed publication but also do appreciate the internet based matter too.

Regarding the magazine Model Railroad Hobbyist, I am very impressed with the initiative and content and believe this is the way ahead for the future of model railroading! I am more European prototype oriented (more specifically, the old German railways) but also then one can benefit from many of the common techniques and materials provided by American suppliers/producers!

 I am not sure that everything always has to grow all the time in order to be considered 'successful'. I believe quality and diversity is more important than quantity. I trust that the human capability to adapt to changing environments will assure the continuity of the hobby and MRH is surely an element in that line of thought, embracing the new technology of the internet applying a new working principle too.

I wish Joe, the editorial team and all coworkers and contributors the best of success.

Ronald

CNJ831, NYW&B, gloom by any other name

John, your hobby gloom-and-doom views are well-known from other forums, but I wonder why you change your user names on each of them? Is it to give the appearance of more people that agree?

Shame On You, Byron ;^)

Oh Byron, how could you even have the slightest doubt as to the absolute accuracy of CNJ831/NYW&B's pronouncements? The man is a veritable cornucopia of truth and enlightenment.

Naturally, his comments have been peer reviewed prior to posting. Well, self-reviewed maybe as the man has no peers. At least I don't recall him acknowledging anyone as a peer.

There are whole publications out there (at least in the non-model railroad sphere) for which the whole idea of peer review is meaningless anyway since the "peers" doing the reviewing are even nuttier than the author.

Mike

John's point is ...

John's basic point is "just saying it doesn't make it so" - and of course that cuts both ways.

I have spoken with sources high up at Kalmbach and in the NMRA that don't agree with John as to the future of the hobby - so saying "I haven't found anyone in the industry who disagrees with what I'm saying" implies comprehensive interviews of most hobby industry experts - which clearly is not so.

I suspect the truth is (and I freely admit I have NOT checked with all industry experts): I can find more than a few who agree the hobby is making something of a comeback - and some who think the hobby's on a downhill slide that will never stop. You decide. There's definitely no clear-cut answer.

I also know some of John's "insider stories" are not accurate - I've spoken with those who were there and they tell me more than a few of John's accounts are based on hearsay and industry gossip - and not really what happened. If someone seems unwilling to do their homework, does not seem interested in interviewing the actual parties being named in the account, and then telling both sides of the story (it's called unbiased or balanced reporting), can you count on any of it to be the accurate unvarnished truth?

Meanwhile, MRH is growing - and doing that during a time of an extremely down economy - and that's quite a feat. I don't just mean the circulation growth of our free magazine - I mean our ad income is growing each issue as well.

My preference is to be a producer and to focus on building a brigher future - rather than just be a self-appointed critic and complainer.

The Third Route

There is the third route - and that could just as well be that the hobby is going neither up nor down - it's just going like it always has.

MRH should continue growing for at least another 2-5 years.  The foundation is well laid!

Joe, since your response and

Joe, since your response and those of a few others like to imply that my post is composed of falsehoods and errors, in fairness to me I would like to ask that you and my other critics at least have the decency to offer examples that demonstrate this and present in evidence those facts that contradict what I posted. Up front I will say that I cite no "insider stories" that I am aware of, I do not post any statistics from highly obscure  and unobtainable sources, nor do I claim info from individuals among the higher ups in Kalmbach or the NMRA, as you have, folks who for some reason can never be named. Rather, I base everything I post on published information easily and freely available to anyone willing to expend the time to do a basic data search on the subject. The current state of the hobby and its potential future are important subjects, ones that should be addressed in a factual manner. Yet, few seem willing to do so, particularly when it comes to actually researching  the numbers.

My postings may not be popular because they are not all the sunshine and roses that a lot of folks feel is the only acceptable outlook on today's hobby, but that does not negated their being a reflection of the true situation. So let's have a little fair play here and rather than offering speculation and baseless opinion, I would simply ask that folks cite what the published hobby data actually indicates in discussions of this sort, be it pro or con.

NYW&B    

Okay, let's start with your name

Name names? Well you know my name, what's yours? Let's start there.

Your posts sound a lot like John Bruce's, which is why we're saying what we're saying. If you're not John, then we stand corrected - we've been painting you with the wrong brush.

If you want to know names of people I've spoken to, just look at the names of the current and past staff of Kalmbach, and look at the names of current and past NMRA board members. I've spoken with many of them about this topic. More than a few have told me the things I've shared. A few have told me things that sound more like what you have shared. But not everyone agrees and it is NOT as cut and dried as you claim.

I'm not calling anyone a liar - I'm simply pointing out that facts by themselves are just raw data with little meaning - you have to interpret them to give them meaning and interpretation is not without bias - which means a fair amount of what is being bantied about in these discussions is opinion.

I freely admit the discussions I refer to are an opinion and interpretation of facts, where some facts are highlighted and some are ignored. Same for you - opinion and interpretation of facts. If you don't think the same facts can have opposing interpretation, just look at any good mystery story or some tough court cases. The same facts can lead to completely different interpretations and opposite conclusions.

You reach one conclusion, and there are those that agree with you. I have reached a difference conclusion and there are those that agree with me.

We therefore agree to disagree. I doubt I will have the final word, however ... so I will let you post one more post and then we will lock this thread.

Reply to comment

Joe, I think you'll agree that there is a marked difference between differing interpretations of published facts and the advancement of pure speculation as if it were fact. I would point out that whenever I post published data I am never offered verifiable figures or evidence that counters them by anyone, only others' unsubstantiated personal takes on the situation...or more typically slights against me, apparently out of the frustation of responders at being incapable of finding any actual evidence that supports their position. 

The business about Generation Y, the decidedly incorrect timeline regarding MR's peak years of publication, the Reuters' article, the typical model railroaders' profile, and the proposition that so much accurate information  (yet most all of it totally unreviewed and thus potentially misleading, or inaccurate) being offered through the Internet, smacks of one either not taking the time to look up the associated facts and their implications, or simply dismissing them. It would have been far more appropriate when adrressing this controversial subject to have actually offered some of the published facts and figures, both pro and con, and letting the reader draw the conclusions. 

And...who the heck is John Bruce? As you are able to see from my e-mail address, which contains my name and was used to register for MRH, I'm certainly not him.

NYW&B  

Its an editiorial. Get over it.

Its an editiorial. Get over it. We can accept you don't agree with the editorial and move on. I do find it odd that you have been here for 32 weeks but are only now discovering this thread, but to each their own.

Personally, I find the whole discussion about the health of the hobby to be a huge waste of time and energy that can be better spent building, and talk of building, a model railroad. I think people who are deeply concerned about the health of the hobby should either do something about it, find a new hobby, or go build a model and talk about that for a change of pace.

Chris

Its An Editorial. Get Over It.

Nothing strange about my delaying a response until now. I wanted to see if any actual supporting facts would be provided in the second part of this two-part editorial regarding the state of the hobby. They were not.

What I don't understand is why ignorance of a situation seems to be so much more desirable among many model railroaders than is any clear undstanding in a matter. I see this in far more topics than the one in question. It this some sort of ostrich syndrome? 

NYW&B 

There is no spoon.

There is no situation,  just people having fun with model railroading.

You make it sound like someone is going to come to my house and take my model railroad away.

This is absurd, I am done with this chicken little thread. The sky is not falling. Go find something important to worry about.

Chris

They can have my NMRA track guage

ACK! They can have my NMRA track guage when they pry it from my cold, dead, fingers.

Hey, pushing fear has sold well the past few decades. why stop now?

Off to install Bullfrogs.

Locking this thread

Everyone's had their say, so wer'e now locking this thread.